The current crisis repeats the patterns of previous crises. Against a backdrop of falling production and rising unemployment, central banks and governments around the world are trying to save their economies from a major crash. The formula for this stabilisation policy is based on the lessons of the British economist John Maynard Keynes, which he described after the Great Depression in 1936 in his "General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money". For the slump but also beyond, Keynes provided insightful policy recommendations that can be applied in the 21st century.Thirty years after German reunification - and under distress due to the acute coronavirus crisis - the seventh New Paradigm Workshop of the Forum New Economy took place in Berlin on 28-30 September. Renowned German and international experts discussed the "Future of the German Economic Model". How well is Germany prepared for the coming challenges? This forum features a selection of articles funded by the Forum New Economy and presented at its workshop, including studies on the development of inequality in Germany, new industrial policy, the relevance of fiscal rules and the pitfalls of the German export model. The forum also includes a translation of the keynote by Thomas Piketty.Estimating parameters for distributed hydrological models is a challenging and long studied task. Parameter transfer functions, which define model parameters as functions of geophysical properties of a catchment, might improve the calibration procedure, increase process realism, and can enable prediction in ungauged areas. We present the function space optimization (FSO), a symbolic regression method for estimating parameter transfer functions for distributed hydrological models. FSO is based on the idea of transferring the search for mathematical expressions into a continuous vector space that can be used for optimization. This is accomplished by using a text generating neural network with a variational autoencoder architecture that can learn to compress the information of mathematical functions. To evaluate the performance of FSO, we conducted a case study using a parsimonious hydrological model and synthetic discharge data. The case study consisted of two FSO applications single-criteria FSO, where only discharge was used for optimization, and multicriteria FSO, where additional spatiotemporal observations of model states were used for transfer function estimation. The results show that FSO is able to estimate transfer functions correctly or approximate them sufficiently. https://www.selleckchem.com/products/eribulin-mesylate-e7389.html We observed a reduced fit of the parameter density functions resulting from the inferred transfer functions for less sensitive model parameters. For those it was sufficient to estimate functions resulting in parameter distributions with approximately the same mean parameter values as the real transfer functions. The results of the multicriteria FSO showed that using multiple spatiotemporal observations for optimization increased the quality of estimation considerably.Friendship is commonly assumed to reduce strategic uncertainty and enhance tacit coordination. However, this assumption has never been tested across two opposite poles of coordination involving either strategic complementarity or substitutability. We had participants interact with friends or strangers in two classic coordination games the stag-hunt game, which exhibits strategic complementarity and may foster "cooperation", and the entry game, which exhibits strategic substitutability and may foster "competition". Both games capture a frequent trade-off between a potentially high paying but uncertain option and a low paying but safe alternative. We find that, relative to strangers, friends are more likely to choose options involving uncertainty in stag-hunt games, but the opposite is true in entry games. Furthermore, in stag-hunt games, friends "tremble" less between options, coordinate better and earn more, but these advantages are largely decreased or lost in entry games. We further investigate how these effects are modulated by risk attitudes, friendship qualities, and interpersonal similarities.We propose sensitivity analyses for publication bias in meta-analyses. We consider a publication process such that 'statistically significant' results are more likely to be published than negative or "non-significant" results by an unknown ratio, η. Our proposed methods also accommodate some plausible forms of selection based on a study's standard error. Using inverse probability weighting and robust estimation that accommodates non-normal population effects, small meta-analyses, and clustering, we develop sensitivity analyses that enable statements such as 'For publication bias to shift the observed point estimate to the null, "significant" results would need to be at least 30 fold more likely to be published than negative or "non-significant" results'. Comparable statements can be made regarding shifting to a chosen non-null value or shifting the confidence interval. To aid interpretation, we describe empirical benchmarks for plausible values of η across disciplines. We show that a worst-case meta-analytic point estimate for maximal publication bias under the selection model can be obtained simply by conducting a standard meta-analysis of only the negative and 'non-significant' studies; this method sometimes indicates that no amount of such publication bias could 'explain away' the results. We illustrate the proposed methods by using real meta-analyses and provide an R package PublicationBias.Becker's theory of home production suggests substitutability between consumption spending and home production. Using panel data with detailed information on spending and time use, we analyze house-holds' ability to replace consumption spending by home produced counterparts. Keeping wages fixed and changing lifetime resources by the shock to housing wealth during the Great Recession we estimate an elasticity of substitution that is consistent with a Life-Cycle Becker model. However, we estimate that only about 11% of total spending is replaceable by home production, which, in contrast to prior literature, makes it unlikely that home production fully mitigates the consequences of wealth shocks to well-being.